Hunter, Tigers Are Perfect Fit - Gary Armida's Blog

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Gary Armida's Blog

Hunter, Tigers Are Perfect Fit Stuck

Posted on November 15, 2012 at 11:34 AM.

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Over the past decade or so, there is an increasing volume of analysis that essentially rips almost every single free agent signing or trade. The analysts usually conclude that teams overpaid for a certain player and that the risks always outweigh the potential benefit. But, that ignores the reality of free agency and the open market. The market is almost always going to lend itself to inflated salaries. Teams interested in a player�s services are always going to have to pay more as supply never really seems to catch up in demand. And, you could talk about cost per win and all that, but the truth is that dollars don�t really matter all that much in free agency.

Somewhere along the line, analysts have become obsessed with the salary of a player. It isn�t wise for a team to commit 30 to 40 percent of its salary to one player, but those particular teams don�t typically do that. A player�s salary is largely irrelevant even though we like to discuss them and hold them over their heads when they don�t perform.

The only part of free agent signings that should be a concern is the length of a deal. Teams making long-term deals for players who will never give any sort of performance late in the deal are the foolish ones. A high salary for one or two seasons can be worked around. A long term commitment at a high salary is dangerous.

Free agency complicates that for teams. Teams on the brink of being real World Series threats may need to overpay for a player. As long as they do it in the short term, it is a wise move.

The textbook case for this is Torii Hunter and the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers just got beat in the World Series. They have the talent to go back again. They needed to upgrade their outfield production. Torii Hunter is entering his age 37 season. He wants to get to a World Series before his career is finished. He has still produced at an above average level. They are a perfect match.

The Tigers and Hunter agreed on a two year, $26 million deal. The salary seems a bit high, but the length is perfect. The Tigers are paying slightly more than they should per year, but they aren�t risking a long term drop off. For 2013, Hunter is an upgrade in right field for the Tigers.

They shouldn�t expect the 2012 version of Hunter who hit a career high .313 with a career high on base percentage of .365. Hunter is one of the most consistent players of his time. He is a career .277/.335/.466 hitter. He has hit over 400 doubles and is approaching 300 home runs. In his 16 year career, he has never hit below .255 or above, at least until last season, .299.

There are risks for the Tigers. Hunter is coming off of a very good season, but saw his power regress for a fourth consecutive season. His strikeout rate jumped to a career high 22.8%. His walk rate dropped to a career low 6.8%. While it could be the result of a new approach of a veteran trying to guess early in counts, higher strikeout rates and declining power aren�t good combinations. Add in his .389 BABIP from last season and regression can be expected.

But, those risks are minimized for a couple of reasons. Hunter still provides great value on defense. While the strikeouts and declining power are troublesome, he still is productive and offers more production to a Tigers lineup that was thin outside of Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, and Austin Jackson. Adding Hunter and getting Victor Martinez back makes the Tigers� top five in the order very difficult to navigate through.

If one projects a regression back towards a career norm, a reasonable projection for Hunter would be .270/.335/.451 with 15-20 home runs, above average defense, and being a positive presence in the clubhouse. Does that validate $13 million for the season? No, but Torii Hunter doesn�t need to do that for the Tigers. The Tigers believe, correctly, that they could return to the World Series with a couple of upgrades. Their 2012 right fielders hit .247/.299/.365, providing the least value of all right fielders in the American League. Hunter, even if severely regressed, will give better production.

The initial thought is to have him bat second in the order. Hitting in front of Miguel Cabrera certainly has advantages and should help Hunter get good pitches to hit.

The Tigers and Hunter were aggressive with this deal. Hunter wanted it done quickly. He didn�t shop for a better offer. The Tigers found someone that could help, paid him a bit higher of an annual salary than expected, but only made a two year commitment. It is a perfect match and one that isn�t as risky as teams lining up to give Nick Swisher a deal that doubles the length of Hunter�s. The Tigers upgraded their outfield and Hunter is playing for a team that is built to win right now.

It�s a perfect fit, even if the Tigers might be paying a couple of million extra to make it fit.

Comments

# 1 rudyjuly2 @ Nov 15

The Tigers offense and defense were terrible in RF last year. Hunter is a perfect fit! Combine that with Mr. Illitch's burning desire to win a World Series while he still has time means the Tigers will be making a push every year.